Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Protecting Against the Federal Stimulus



My predictions in May of this year were correct when I said that the federal stimulus would continue and volatility would be the norm.  In September of this year the Federal Reserve announced Quantitative Easement III (QEIII), which was designed to keep pace with Mario Draghi and the ongoing Euro crisis; promising continuous monthly injections of $85 trillion in order to protect our nation from an economic collapse.  There is no way to know how long this will go on for, however; Fed Ben Bernanke stated unlimited printing.  Why?  Why not, the total known federal stimulus was at $3.6 trillion prior to QEIII.  So when additional stimulus is announced, it is then shrugged off as old news.  Investors are numb to this phenomenon, and have now become conditioned to expect Uncle Sam to cut a check.  The rules are now set in total opposition to a bull market, meaning that investors are now counting on Uncle Sam to help offset their losses.  With respect to financial preservation, the next few years are crucial and how we approach the Federal stimulus will determine what our financial fate will be. 

In September of 2013 the total Federal stimulus will exceed $5 trillion.  QEIII will add another trillion dollars to the printing press each and every year.  When you take into account that’s the cost per year for the Federal Government to run the country, the thought becomes overwhelming.  Even worse, we are at the tip of the ice burg.  Why?  Because QEIII was announced at $85 trillion per month, indefinitely, moving forward.

So the question is how do you think the market will react to this news?  My guess is it will likely react to QEIII the same way it did over the last 5 years.  We will likely see a roller coaster in a downward trend. This is where the opportunity lies.

When the market is having its ups and downs it seems pointless to try and beat the market.  This is why investors are looking to protect financial interests they can control.  Interests that will protect your money from all future market downturns with a guarantee of lifetime income.  For example, think of it as taking your 401k and knowing that even if you never added one more penny to the account you would have a secure income steam for life at any time in the future; while knowing your eligible income will increase each and every year.

We know that volatility will be the norm moving forward, especially with the continuation of QEIII.  Just like we all know of the losses due to the stimulus in the last 5 years.  The question is; if you could go back and protect all of your financial interests prior to the fall of Lehman Brothers, or the Financial Collapse of 2008, would you?  I know most, if not all of my clients would have, or did, taken action to protect their money.  Honestly, why wouldn’t you protect your money? Especially knowing $85 billion each and every month will be continuing for quite some time.  At what point will it be too late?